Two adjustments have been made to the weekly ranking process, prompting a refreshed presentation of the investment plan. The modifications are minor refinements; eight stocks remained consistent across both the previous and revised methods applied to this week’s Top Ten.
The Plan
Below is the process and the guidelines I will follow in building and adding to the Portfolio for the Ages:
- Each week, using the Sure Analysis Research Database, I will extract important data about the 80 stocks that comprise the Royal Dividend ‘Empire’. As of the time of this writing, the Empire consists of 56 Dividend Kings and 24 ‘Royal Heirs’ that serve to ensure each of the eleven sectors have at least five stocks in the Empire. The Royal Heirs have the longest dividend increase streaks (under 50 years) in their respective sectors.
- From the Empire, I will eliminate the companies with the following characteristics:
- Price >= Fair Value
- Dividend Yield < (1.5 x Dividend Yield of the S&P 500 Index)1
Expected Total Return (annualized) < 10%- (Dividend Yield + Conservative Growth Estimate) < 7.0%2 (where the conservative growth estimate is the lower of the dividend growth rate estimate and the earnings growth rate estimate).
- The remaining stocks will be sorted on Expected Total Return in descending order. The Top Ten will be the stocks considered most worthy of investment.
- The Top Ten will be sorted into two classes, with Dividend Kings preferred over non-Dividend Kings, ranked by Expected Total Return in descending order within each classification.
- $250 will be used to purchase shares of the stock appearing in the weekly Top Ten with the lowest account value among those currently held in the portfolio.
- In the event none of the stocks currently held in the portfolio appear in the Top Ten, we will purchase $1,000 worth of shares of the highest ranked stock.
- Regardless of whether the purchase is a $250 installment in an existing position or a $1,000 investment in a new stock, the purchase will be subject to two constraints:
- A stock purchase cannot push the portfolio weight of a single stock over (3/n) x 100%, where n is the number of stocks in the portfolio. For example, if the portfolio has 23 stocks, I will not purchase shares of a stock that would push its portfolio weight over 13.0%. By extension, I will not purchase shares of a stock, when such purchase will cause a similar breach of overweighting associated with a certain subset of the most heavily weighted stocks at the time.3 If this is the case, I will move down the list to the first eligible stock that does not violate this weight constraint. This constraint will ensure that no one stock represents three times as much as it would in an equally weighted portfolio and that no subset of stocks occupies too great a portion of the overall portfolio. This ensures the portfolio is not overly exposed to the performance of any one company or subset of companies.
- A stock purchase cannot push the stock’s sector weight over (3/11) x 100% = 27.3%. This is analogous to the cap set on a single stock weight, where the number of sectors is 11 and is unlikely to change. By extension, I will not purchase shares of a stock when such purchase will cause a similar breach of overweighting associated with a certain subset of the most heavily weighted sectors at the time. If this is the case, I will move down to the next eligible stock from a different sector. This ensures the portfolio is not overly exposed to any one sector or subset of sectors.
- Investing $250 per week amounts to $13,000 per year. However, as the portfolio grows, so will the dividends. When the accumulated dividends (plus any option premiums) reach $250, the purchase amount to be deployed for the weekly purchase would be $500. The following week, the investment amount will return to $250 until the dividends grow to $250 again. The same logic will apply to any capital gains made from a sale.
- The number of shares purchased will be rounded up to the nearest integer to ensure that a minimum of $250 is invested.
- If one share of a stock were to cost $500 or more, the following week’s purchase will be skipped. If the price were $750, the following two weeks would be skipped, etc.
- If the purchase is $1,000 worth of a new stock addition to the portfolio, the following three weeks will be skipped in order to maintain a $250+ investment average per week.
- Weeks will not be skipped when the amount invested is higher because of collected dividends, option premiums, or capital gains from the sale of a position.
- The Top Ten will be extended as necessary in the event the sector constraint repeatedly prevents a purchase (will happen if the Top Ten is dominated by a sector).
- As of the date of this post, the S&P 500 Index is yielding a paltry 1.14%, largely due to the near-zero dividend yield of the Top 9 companies that comprise about 40% of the Index. By eliminating stocks below 1.5x this number, we are favoring stocks that pay a higher dividend still. Sure Dividend has moved to this threshold and Royal Dividends is adopting it as well. ↩︎
- Previously, stocks with an Expected Total Return below 10% were excluded to ensure that new investments targeted companies with the strongest return prospects. The revised approach focuses instead on retaining businesses with higher dividend yields and meaningful potential for dividend growth. This adjustment better supports the long-term objective of building a steadily rising dividend income stream, while reducing reliance on fair value growth estimates—often the most difficult element of Expected Total Return to project. The Conservative Growth Estimate, along with its underlying components, is sourced from the Sure Analysis Research Database. This methodology has already been incorporated into the Sure Dividend Core Newsletter’s ranking process, and Royal Dividends is now adopting the same refinement. ↩︎
- The formula that establishes the maximum allowable weights for a subset of the most heavily weighted stocks or sectors is explained in detail in the post titled “Check Your Portfolio with this Formula”. Each week, the formula is applied from both a stock and sector perspective and the results are presented in an easy-to-read chart. ↩︎